Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Some Thoughts On Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Baseball ... Millions of baseball fans play it every year. I started in 1995. I didn't do very good the first couple of years, but as time and experience reshaped my thinking, I got a little better and actually won a couple of leagues. I've been playing almost every year since 1995. I'm already signed up with three teams this year.
There are as many approaches to trying to assemble a winning team as there are fantasy managers. And who knows from year to year which approach is going to prove most successful. And, of course, there's a fair amount of luck, good and bad, involved ... favorable team match/pitcher match-ups, injuries, schedule quirks due to weather, slumps, good players having a down year, good players having a great year, previously unheralded players having a breakout year (think Charlie Blackmon of the Colorado Rockies and Devin Mesoraco of the Cincinnati Reds in 2014) ... and a bunch of other unpredictable factors.
I think too many fantasy managers let two things, more than any other factors except general neglect, hurt their fantasy teams: 1. Hometown favorite players and 2. Personal biases. Let me explain.
1. Hometown Favorites: Some folks, meaning fantasy managers, just can't force themselves to leave their favorite hometown player off their fantasy team. Yeah, he's pretty good, but is he as good as the first couple of players, at his position, who head most ranking lists? I know several people from the St. Louis area who just can't bear to leave Yadier Molina of their fantasy team. Is he the best catcher in all of baseball? Possibly. But, is he the best fantasy catcher? I would say not. I think that nod goes to Buster Posey with Molina ranked 3rd or 4th. Remember, defense means nothing in most fantasy leagues. You have to separate the offensive player from the total player when drafting/selecting players for your fantasy team.
2. Personal Bias: So, you're convinced Ryan Braun took PEDs. Most people, including me, are. He escaped punishment by means of an error in the chain of custody of his urine sample. Like me, you probably have issue with the players who took PEDs. That's a real life situation. Fantasy baseball is not the same as real life baseball. If he, or any player proven or suspected to have used PEDs can help your team, compared to what you would have with a different, clean player, why not draft him on to your team? He's not affecting anything on the real playing field because you drafted him onto your fantasy team. He's not breaking any real records. Real life baseball and fantasy baseball are not the same and your attitude about them should not be the same. Back in the late 1990's, a good friend of mine refused to draft Barry Bonds onto his team because he didn't like his condescending attitude. PED's were not a hot topic back then, so that's out of the picture. My friend simply didn't like Barry Bonds, the person. Not drafting him cost my friend almost $1,000.00 as he finished second rather than first in one of his fantasy league. It was very close. With Bonds' numbers replacing the player he drafted instead, my friend would have won the league and $2,000.00. Instead he came in second and won $1,100.00. My friend had an oppotunity to draft Bonds but chose someone else instead.
I'm not a big fan of sabremetrics, although they do have some relevance. I don't play in leagues that use sabremetric stats. But, that's a personal choice. I prefer the old tried and true stats that have been used for years, even decades.
Another interesting situation I have observed is when a fantasy manager finds him/herself caught between rooting for their real life team or their fantasy team when they are in direct conflict with one another. As an example ... in a head-to-head league, you need a home run to win the night. Edwin Encarnacion is coming to the plate in the bottom of the ninth and a home run by him will give your fanatasy team the victory. Encarnacion is on your fantasy team. But wait! The Blue Jays, Encarnacion's team, is playing your hometown team in real life! We've all been there more than a few times. I always root for my real team, not my fantasy team, in those situations. Real life baseball is much more important and affects the real lives of many people. Your fantasy team's performance only affects you, and to some degree, the other fantasy managers in your league. For me, it's a no-brainer.
Here's wishing you good luck with your fantasy teams, no matter the approach you use. Have a great summer of baseball, real and fantasy, this 2015.
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Cole Hamels - Where Will He Pitch In 2015?
January 9, 2015
Cole Hamels is a pretty danged good pitcher! I think there are few folks who will argue with that. Granted, his win-loss record last year (9-9) isn't especially impressive. But, if you consider where he pitched last year, maybe it's not that bad after all. The Philadelphia Phillies were 73-89 last year. They lost 16 games more than they won. At least Hamels won as many games as he lost. That's more than the team can say.
In 2014 his ERA was a very nice 2.46. He logged 204.2 innings. He racked up 198 strikeouts and had a WHIP of 1.148. Those stats certainly suggest his win-loss record was more a function of poor team performance than poor performance on his part. Thus, I say the win-loss record can be ignored, for the most part. He allowed fewer than 2 runs per nine innings pitched ... nice work! But, if your team can't consistently score more runs than you allow, you're not going to win a lot of games. It might be a stretch to say Hamels was "lucky" to have won nine games. But my point of view is the team should feel "lucky" he won as many as nine games, considering the poor support they gave him.
The Phillies need a complete makeover ... they need to get younger and more aggressive. Hamels, at 31 years of age, is at that age where baseball players are viewed as being in the latter half of their prime years, the prime years usually being defined at the ages of 27 - 33. But in terms of the Phillies' average age, he's almost a youngster. And that pretty much sums up the problem the Phillies have ... excessive age.
So why do I think the Phillies need to move him? Because they're going to be in a rebuilding phase for the next couple of years. They need to appropriate the money from his contract towards getting younger players elsewhere. Also, they will get some young blood in return for him. Well, that's assuming they break the mold of recent years in which they grossly over-paid for already aging talent.
Hamel's contract is relatively team friendly when compared to today's market value for pithers of his ilk. He's not cheap but he's still below the average. He's owed $23.5M for the next four years ... that's $96M total. I know it's hard to believe those figures are relatively team friendly, but that's current status of baseball player salaries. And for you Sabrematricians, his WAR last year was 6.6 and it's never been below 5.4 since before 2010. Not too shabby!
So, all that said, where do I think he should go, or where do I think he might go?
Where should he go?
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Why? The Cardinals have questions about their starting rotation, although they are not willing to say so publicly. Lance Lynn seems fairly stable, although he's put a lot of work on his arm the past two years. Adam Wainwright had chips/spurs removed from his elbow last year. He had another excellent year. Hopefully the elbow presents no problems in 2015. Michael Wacha's ability to perform at expected standards is unknown at this point. He had major shoulder issues that are reported to be resolved. But, only time and performance will determine how far along he really is and how much he can contribute. After those three pitchers, the Cards have promising youth but none have yet demonstrated they have the ability to perform at the expected levels for them, although Carlos Martinez has flashed moments of very good pitching. Don't get me wrong, they've done a decent job, but they're expected to produce well above the level of "decent".
As I mentioned before, Hamel's contract is a lot of money but below average for his demonstrated skills over the past few years. The Cardinals have the financial wherewithal to pay him. He would be going into what I believe is a good clubhouse environment and to a team that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to go deep into the playoffs. The stadium is pretty much even for hitters and pitchers. And it's a baseball town that loves it's team and the players.
The Cardinals have the young players, particularly young arms and young outfielders, that would help Philly. They have 2 Major league ready outfielders in Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuck. And in young pitching arms, they have Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales. Grichuk and Martinez are both Major League proven, If I were the Cardinals, I'd be willing to give up one of the outfielders and one of the pitchers, but not both pitchers or both outfielders. That would leave then too thin either way. They also have Jaime Garcia but he's recovering from major issues and there's a lot to question about his timetable for recovery and his effectiveness when he does return. I think Marco Gonzales has more upside than Carlos Martinez, so the Cards would better sending Martinez and Grichuck to Philly if they make a trade. I also think I would trade Jaime Garcia in lieu of either Marinez or Gonzales, if Philly would take him. If he comes back strong, he's be a real fine addition to their rotation.
2. San Diego Padres Why? The Padres have really beefed up their line-up this off-season. Offensively, they should give their pitching staff decent support. Their pitching staff is mediocre ... not terrible but a long ways from wonderful. Hamels would significantly improve the pitching staff. He would be a great mentor to the young pitchers they have. And it's a pitcher's ball bark.
I don't know what the San Diego Padres' financial situation is after their recent spending and trading spree. Although the Dodgers picked up about $35M of Matt Kemp's contract, the Padres still have a pretty big chunk of change left to pay. And the other caveat is that Hamels is a San Diego native. I don't think that will have a lot to do with any decision he makes. But, if it's the Padres or another team on equal financial and incentive terms, perhaps that would come into play. But, I wouldn't count on that anymore than I would count on Max Scherzer giving his hometown Cardinals special consideration just because he's from suburban St. Louis.
On the other hand, Hamels is 31 years old and probably has three to four excellent years left in his arm, barring injury. I would think he would want to go to a team on which he felt he would be in the post season this year, or next at the latest. I don't feel the Padres will be in the post-season, even with all their upgrades. They have the Dodgers and Giants to contend with in the NL West and I'm not sure their record will reward them with a wild card opportunity.
The Padres have a few decent prospects in the minors, but I'm not sure they would want to part with them. Reuben Amaro has been asking a lot in return for Hamels (which is appropriate), but I think the Padres would gut their farm system to get what Amoro would want. In my opinion, the Padres would be foolish to give up more than one or two of their best minor league prospects, and that's what Reuben Amaro would want, as a minimum. Since none are Major League proven at this point, I'm not sure that would fulfill the Phillies' needs, unless they could get at three of them. As I said, that would, in my opinion, devastate the Padres' minor league promise. But Amaro has stated repeatedly he wants Major League ready players or a group of high-level prospects in return.
There are, obviously, other possibilities, such as Toronto, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and the Yankees, but I'm much less confident in those possibilities. Well, possibly the Yankees. But, what do they have to give the Phillies in return? Not a whole lot that Philadelphia needs, as far as I can see. I anticipate the Yankees are going to be very active in the David Price talks.
That's just my take on the situation. As I say, I'm not an insider and have no more access to information than the average fan. These are just my thoughts given my limited knowledge of the inner circles of Major league Baseball. I'll be back with another post in sveral days. See ya then!
(Post updated 1-9-15)
Cole Hamels is a pretty danged good pitcher! I think there are few folks who will argue with that. Granted, his win-loss record last year (9-9) isn't especially impressive. But, if you consider where he pitched last year, maybe it's not that bad after all. The Philadelphia Phillies were 73-89 last year. They lost 16 games more than they won. At least Hamels won as many games as he lost. That's more than the team can say.
In 2014 his ERA was a very nice 2.46. He logged 204.2 innings. He racked up 198 strikeouts and had a WHIP of 1.148. Those stats certainly suggest his win-loss record was more a function of poor team performance than poor performance on his part. Thus, I say the win-loss record can be ignored, for the most part. He allowed fewer than 2 runs per nine innings pitched ... nice work! But, if your team can't consistently score more runs than you allow, you're not going to win a lot of games. It might be a stretch to say Hamels was "lucky" to have won nine games. But my point of view is the team should feel "lucky" he won as many as nine games, considering the poor support they gave him.
The Phillies need a complete makeover ... they need to get younger and more aggressive. Hamels, at 31 years of age, is at that age where baseball players are viewed as being in the latter half of their prime years, the prime years usually being defined at the ages of 27 - 33. But in terms of the Phillies' average age, he's almost a youngster. And that pretty much sums up the problem the Phillies have ... excessive age.
So why do I think the Phillies need to move him? Because they're going to be in a rebuilding phase for the next couple of years. They need to appropriate the money from his contract towards getting younger players elsewhere. Also, they will get some young blood in return for him. Well, that's assuming they break the mold of recent years in which they grossly over-paid for already aging talent.
Hamel's contract is relatively team friendly when compared to today's market value for pithers of his ilk. He's not cheap but he's still below the average. He's owed $23.5M for the next four years ... that's $96M total. I know it's hard to believe those figures are relatively team friendly, but that's current status of baseball player salaries. And for you Sabrematricians, his WAR last year was 6.6 and it's never been below 5.4 since before 2010. Not too shabby!
So, all that said, where do I think he should go, or where do I think he might go?
Where should he go?
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Why? The Cardinals have questions about their starting rotation, although they are not willing to say so publicly. Lance Lynn seems fairly stable, although he's put a lot of work on his arm the past two years. Adam Wainwright had chips/spurs removed from his elbow last year. He had another excellent year. Hopefully the elbow presents no problems in 2015. Michael Wacha's ability to perform at expected standards is unknown at this point. He had major shoulder issues that are reported to be resolved. But, only time and performance will determine how far along he really is and how much he can contribute. After those three pitchers, the Cards have promising youth but none have yet demonstrated they have the ability to perform at the expected levels for them, although Carlos Martinez has flashed moments of very good pitching. Don't get me wrong, they've done a decent job, but they're expected to produce well above the level of "decent".
As I mentioned before, Hamel's contract is a lot of money but below average for his demonstrated skills over the past few years. The Cardinals have the financial wherewithal to pay him. He would be going into what I believe is a good clubhouse environment and to a team that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to go deep into the playoffs. The stadium is pretty much even for hitters and pitchers. And it's a baseball town that loves it's team and the players.
The Cardinals have the young players, particularly young arms and young outfielders, that would help Philly. They have 2 Major league ready outfielders in Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuck. And in young pitching arms, they have Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales. Grichuk and Martinez are both Major League proven, If I were the Cardinals, I'd be willing to give up one of the outfielders and one of the pitchers, but not both pitchers or both outfielders. That would leave then too thin either way. They also have Jaime Garcia but he's recovering from major issues and there's a lot to question about his timetable for recovery and his effectiveness when he does return. I think Marco Gonzales has more upside than Carlos Martinez, so the Cards would better sending Martinez and Grichuck to Philly if they make a trade. I also think I would trade Jaime Garcia in lieu of either Marinez or Gonzales, if Philly would take him. If he comes back strong, he's be a real fine addition to their rotation.
2. San Diego Padres Why? The Padres have really beefed up their line-up this off-season. Offensively, they should give their pitching staff decent support. Their pitching staff is mediocre ... not terrible but a long ways from wonderful. Hamels would significantly improve the pitching staff. He would be a great mentor to the young pitchers they have. And it's a pitcher's ball bark.
I don't know what the San Diego Padres' financial situation is after their recent spending and trading spree. Although the Dodgers picked up about $35M of Matt Kemp's contract, the Padres still have a pretty big chunk of change left to pay. And the other caveat is that Hamels is a San Diego native. I don't think that will have a lot to do with any decision he makes. But, if it's the Padres or another team on equal financial and incentive terms, perhaps that would come into play. But, I wouldn't count on that anymore than I would count on Max Scherzer giving his hometown Cardinals special consideration just because he's from suburban St. Louis.
On the other hand, Hamels is 31 years old and probably has three to four excellent years left in his arm, barring injury. I would think he would want to go to a team on which he felt he would be in the post season this year, or next at the latest. I don't feel the Padres will be in the post-season, even with all their upgrades. They have the Dodgers and Giants to contend with in the NL West and I'm not sure their record will reward them with a wild card opportunity.
The Padres have a few decent prospects in the minors, but I'm not sure they would want to part with them. Reuben Amaro has been asking a lot in return for Hamels (which is appropriate), but I think the Padres would gut their farm system to get what Amoro would want. In my opinion, the Padres would be foolish to give up more than one or two of their best minor league prospects, and that's what Reuben Amaro would want, as a minimum. Since none are Major League proven at this point, I'm not sure that would fulfill the Phillies' needs, unless they could get at three of them. As I said, that would, in my opinion, devastate the Padres' minor league promise. But Amaro has stated repeatedly he wants Major League ready players or a group of high-level prospects in return.
There are, obviously, other possibilities, such as Toronto, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and the Yankees, but I'm much less confident in those possibilities. Well, possibly the Yankees. But, what do they have to give the Phillies in return? Not a whole lot that Philadelphia needs, as far as I can see. I anticipate the Yankees are going to be very active in the David Price talks.
That's just my take on the situation. As I say, I'm not an insider and have no more access to information than the average fan. These are just my thoughts given my limited knowledge of the inner circles of Major league Baseball. I'll be back with another post in sveral days. See ya then!
(Post updated 1-9-15)
Friday, January 2, 2015
An Introduction - Who Am I & Why Am I Here?
January 2, 2015
Who Am I?
Hi! My name is Alan and I've been a huge Major League Baseball fan for over 50 years. I grew up in St. Louis, so, you guessed it ... I'm a Cardinals fan. But, I'll do my very best to not let that interfere with my posts because I'm a baseball fan first.
What Do I Hope To Accomplish With This Blog?
Almost everything written about Major League Baseball is written by people or organizations that fall into one of several groups:
1. Sports/Baseball Reporting Sites, such as Fox Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports, MLB, etc.
2. Statistical Site, such as Stats, Elias, etc.
3. MLB Teams own websites.
There are others but I think the three groups mentioned above constitute the majority of sites writing about Major League Baseball. So, who writes the articles on these sites? For the most part, it's compensated professional sports journalists. They tend to look at things analytically and have inside information that most of us fans are not privy to.
How many sites give the fans' perspective of MLB? I can' think of one! My goal is to provide the ordinary fan's take on the various aspects of MLB. We don't have inside information, we didn't play professional baseball, we don't have connections. All we have is our love and knowledge of the game. I think that gets overlooked for the most part. I hope to be a voice for the everyday fan ... the guy that works his butt of 9-5 everyday and sits down with the family to catch a baseball game when he can. The guy who roots for his team in good times and bad A voice for the real fan ... people like you and me.
I'll be publishing my first report next week ... See you then!
I'll be publishing my first report next week ... See you then!
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