January 9, 2015
Cole Hamels is a pretty danged good pitcher! I think there are few folks who will argue with that. Granted, his win-loss record last year (9-9) isn't especially impressive. But, if you consider where he pitched last year, maybe it's not that bad after all. The Philadelphia Phillies were 73-89 last year. They lost 16 games more than they won. At least Hamels won as many games as he lost. That's more than the team can say.
In 2014 his ERA was a very nice 2.46. He logged 204.2 innings. He racked up 198 strikeouts and had a WHIP of 1.148. Those stats certainly suggest his win-loss record was more a function of poor team performance than poor performance on his part. Thus, I say the win-loss record can be ignored, for the most part. He allowed fewer than 2 runs per nine innings pitched ... nice work! But, if your team can't consistently score more runs than you allow, you're not going to win a lot of games. It might be a stretch to say Hamels was "lucky" to have won nine games. But my point of view is the team should feel "lucky" he won as many as nine games, considering the poor support they gave him.
The Phillies need a complete makeover ... they need to get younger and more aggressive. Hamels, at 31 years of age, is at that age where baseball players are viewed as being in the latter half of their prime years, the prime years usually being defined at the ages of 27 - 33. But in terms of the Phillies' average age, he's almost a youngster. And that pretty much sums up the problem the Phillies have ... excessive age.
So why do I think the Phillies need to move him? Because they're going to be in a rebuilding phase for the next couple of years. They need to appropriate the money from his contract towards getting younger players elsewhere. Also, they will get some young blood in return for him. Well, that's assuming they break the mold of recent years in which they grossly over-paid for already aging talent.
Hamel's contract is relatively team friendly when compared to today's market value for pithers of his ilk. He's not cheap but he's still below the average. He's owed $23.5M for the next four years ... that's $96M total. I know it's hard to believe those figures are relatively team friendly, but that's current status of baseball player salaries. And for you Sabrematricians, his WAR last year was 6.6 and it's never been below 5.4 since before 2010. Not too shabby!
So, all that said, where do I think he should go, or where do I think he might go?
Where should he go?
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Why? The Cardinals have questions about their starting rotation, although they are not willing to say so publicly. Lance Lynn seems fairly stable, although he's put a lot of work on his arm the past two years. Adam Wainwright had chips/spurs removed from his elbow last year. He had another excellent year. Hopefully the elbow presents no problems in 2015. Michael Wacha's ability to perform at expected standards is unknown at this point. He had major shoulder issues that are reported to be resolved. But, only time and performance will determine how far along he really is and how much he can contribute. After those three pitchers, the Cards have promising youth but none have yet demonstrated they have the ability to perform at the expected levels for them, although Carlos Martinez has flashed moments of very good pitching. Don't get me wrong, they've done a decent job, but they're expected to produce well above the level of "decent".
As I mentioned before, Hamel's contract is a lot of money but below average for his demonstrated skills over the past few years. The Cardinals have the financial wherewithal to pay him. He would be going into what I believe is a good clubhouse environment and to a team that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to go deep into the playoffs. The stadium is pretty much even for hitters and pitchers. And it's a baseball town that loves it's team and the players.
The Cardinals have the young players, particularly young arms and young outfielders, that would help Philly. They have 2 Major league ready outfielders in Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuck. And in young pitching arms, they have Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales. Grichuk and Martinez are both Major League proven, If I were the Cardinals, I'd be willing to give up one of the outfielders and one of the pitchers, but not both pitchers or both outfielders. That would leave then too thin either way. They also have Jaime Garcia but he's recovering from major issues and there's a lot to question about his timetable for recovery and his effectiveness when he does return. I think Marco Gonzales has more upside than Carlos Martinez, so the Cards would better sending Martinez and Grichuck to Philly if they make a trade. I also think I would trade Jaime Garcia in lieu of either Marinez or Gonzales, if Philly would take him. If he comes back strong, he's be a real fine addition to their rotation.
2. San Diego Padres Why? The Padres have really beefed up their line-up this off-season. Offensively, they should give their pitching staff decent support. Their pitching staff is mediocre ... not terrible but a long ways from wonderful. Hamels would significantly improve the pitching staff. He would be a great mentor to the young pitchers they have. And it's a pitcher's ball bark.
I don't know what the San Diego Padres' financial situation is after their recent spending and trading spree. Although the Dodgers picked up about $35M of Matt Kemp's contract, the Padres still have a pretty big chunk of change left to pay. And the other caveat is that Hamels is a San Diego native. I don't think that will have a lot to do with any decision he makes. But, if it's the Padres or another team on equal financial and incentive terms, perhaps that would come into play. But, I wouldn't count on that anymore than I would count on Max Scherzer giving his hometown Cardinals special consideration just because he's from suburban St. Louis.
On the other hand, Hamels is 31 years old and probably has three to four excellent years left in his arm, barring injury. I would think he would want to go to a team on which he felt he would be in the post season this year, or next at the latest. I don't feel the Padres will be in the post-season, even with all their upgrades. They have the Dodgers and Giants to contend with in the NL West and I'm not sure their record will reward them with a wild card opportunity.
The Padres have a few decent prospects in the minors, but I'm not sure they would want to part with them. Reuben Amaro has been asking a lot in return for Hamels (which is appropriate), but I think the Padres would gut their farm system to get what Amoro would want. In my opinion, the Padres would be foolish to give up more than one or two of their best minor league prospects, and that's what Reuben Amaro would want, as a minimum. Since none are Major League proven at this point, I'm not sure that would fulfill the Phillies' needs, unless they could get at three of them. As I said, that would, in my opinion, devastate the Padres' minor league promise. But Amaro has stated repeatedly he wants Major League ready players or a group of high-level prospects in return.
There are, obviously, other possibilities, such as Toronto, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and the Yankees, but I'm much less confident in those possibilities. Well, possibly the Yankees. But, what do they have to give the Phillies in return? Not a whole lot that Philadelphia needs, as far as I can see. I anticipate the Yankees are going to be very active in the David Price talks.
That's just my take on the situation. As I say, I'm not an insider and have no more access to information than the average fan. These are just my thoughts given my limited knowledge of the inner circles of Major league Baseball. I'll be back with another post in sveral days. See ya then!
(Post updated 1-9-15)
No comments:
Post a Comment